Trump’s unfulfilled promise to end the Russia-Ukraine war within a day of winning the presidency is now being overshadowed by his attempts to deflect blame, with India becoming the focus. The United States is accusing India of profiting from Russian oil purchases, leading to a 50% tariff on Indian goods, effective August 27th.
The Russia-Ukraine war, ongoing since February 2022, has resulted in over 400,000 fatalities. Russia has suffered approximately 250,000 casualties, including soldiers, while Ukraine’s death toll exceeds 100,000. This raises the question of why Trump is attributing his shortcomings to India.
1. Strategic Maneuvering with the European Union
Europe’s strong stance with Ukraine is prompting the US to seek similar measures from European nations against India. However, the European Union (EU) has maintained silence on the matter. Trump’s advisors are now targeting India by highlighting Modi’s role in the war.
Trump’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on August 15th did not yield any outcomes. This was followed by discussions with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European countries at the White House on August 18th, which also proved unproductive.
On August 29th, Trump’s trade advisor, Peter Navarro, stated that tariffs on India aimed to curb the financial support for Putin’s war efforts. Navarro previously referred to the Russia-Ukraine conflict as ‘Modi’s war,’ accusing India of contributing to the conflict through Russian oil purchases.
2. Biden’s Alleged Role in Starting the War
Trump persistently blames Biden for the war’s outbreak, claiming it wouldn’t have happened under his leadership. Despite these accusations, he continues to advocate for a peaceful resolution, yet a rapid peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine remains uncertain. Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, expressed pessimism about a resolution this year.
Before the failure of a potential agreement, Trump’s team turned its attention to India. The threats had little impact on Russia and Ukraine. On August 22nd, Trump set a two-week deadline for peace talks, stating that a lack of progress would require an alternative approach.
Trump had previously used a two-week timeframe for addressing the Ukraine issue. In May, he stated that any lack of seriousness from Putin regarding a peace agreement would warrant a different response.
3. Using India to Pressure Russia
With the United States unable to directly pressure Russia, it seeks to involve India. The tariffs have been unsuccessful. This tactic appears to be backfiring. India is engaging with 40 countries to counter the tariffs, with the goal of expanding market access for Indian goods.
American economist Richard Wolf noted that Trump’s actions, including the tariffs on India, reflect a ‘tough guy’ stance that is ultimately counterproductive. This approach is seen as supporting BRICS as an economic alternative to the West.
Navarro, Trump’s advisor, alleges that prior to the war, India imported less than 1% of Russian oil; that figure now exceeds 30%, or 1.5 million barrels per day. This increase is not attributed to domestic demand. India, however, asserts its Russian oil purchases have stabilized global oil prices.
