An unconfirmed Pentagon draft report has revealed a striking expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal, detailing the deployment of more than 100 DF-31 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in three new silo complexes close to the Mongolian border. This development highlights Beijing’s rapid advancement in missile technology, with these solid-fuel missiles specifically designed for quick launch and resistance to air defense systems.
While the construction of these silo fields was previously acknowledged, this new assessment offers the first quantitative insight into the number of DF-31 missiles now stationed there. China’s estimated nuclear warhead count, around 600 in 2024, is projected to surpass 1,000 by 2030. Beijing’s stated nuclear doctrine emphasizes “No First Use” and aims for a posture of minimum deterrence.
The DF-31 (NATO: CSS-10) is a formidable weapon in China’s strategic inventory. As a third-generation ICBM, it utilizes solid fuel and is mobile, having entered service in 2006. Its range is substantial, with the basic DF-31 covering 7,000-8,000 kilometers, and the DF-31A/AG variants extending this to 11,000-11,700 kilometers, capable of reaching across the continental United States. The missile measures approximately 13-15 meters in length and 2 meters in diameter, with a launch weight of roughly 42,000 kilograms.
Engineered for rapid response, the solid-fuel system allows for minimal preparation before launch. The DF-31 typically carries a single nuclear warhead with a yield up to 1 megaton. Advanced variants are capable of deploying Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs), increasing the number of targets that can be engaged. Precision is ensured by an inertial navigation system, offering an accuracy of 100-300 meters. Deployment options include road-mobile launchers and the newly constructed silos, enhancing its operational resilience.
With its off-road mobility, survivability features, and decoy capabilities to defeat missile defenses, the DF-31 is a critical component of China’s growing strategic power. Deployment in silos offers enhanced protection against initial attack scenarios, thereby increasing the survivability of China’s nuclear deterrent. The potential strike range of the DF-31 family over the US, Europe, and Asia poses a significant strategic challenge. International monitoring is intense, but China has not yet officially responded to these latest deployment reports, leading to concerns among analysts regarding the future of global and regional security dynamics.
