China’s assertive nuclear buildup is raising alarm bells, with experts identifying a potential strategy of “nuclear blackmail” to advance its territorial ambitions. The recent unveiling of advanced nuclear-capable missiles marks a critical turning point in Beijing’s military posture.
The provocative display of three key missiles – the JL-1, JL-3, and DF-61 – signifies the operationalization of China’s nuclear triad. This comprehensive capability allows Beijing to deliver nuclear payloads from multiple vectors, significantly enhancing its strategic deterrence and offensive potential. This modernized arsenal represents a marked departure from previous defensive postures and mirrors Cold War-era escalations.
Security analysts interpret these developments as preparation for a strategic gambit: waging conventional conflict while using nuclear threats to paralyze international response. The primary target of such a strategy is widely believed to be Taiwan. China could leverage tactical nuclear weapons to deter the United States and its allies from intervening militarily, thereby increasing its chances of a swift conventional victory.
Concerns are mounting that Beijing has learned from Russia’s playbook in Ukraine, where nuclear saber-rattling has been instrumental in limiting external military involvement. This tactic could be employed to deter major powers from supporting democratic nations in regional disputes.
The stakes are high, extending far beyond the Asia-Pacific. If nuclear blackmail proves effective in achieving territorial gains, it could embolden other nuclear-armed states to pursue aggressive agendas. Nations bordering China, such as India, face an increased risk of coercion as Beijing’s nuclear strength grows, potentially limiting their strategic options.