China’s ‘Condom Tax’ Plan: Birth Rate Dilemma

China is set to implement a new policy that could significantly impact access to contraception, with a proposed value-added tax (VAT) on birth control products. For the first time in over thirty years, contraceptives, including condoms, will face the standard 13% VAT starting January 1st. This decision, largely unaddressed by state media, has ignited public debate on social platforms. Critics argue that the tax is misguided, failing to recognize that the high expenses associated with raising children are the main barrier to increasing the birth rate. The move comes as China faces a demographic crisis, with its population declining after decades of strict birth control measures. The one-child policy, in place for approximately 35 years, has been gradually eased, first allowing two children in 2015 and then three in 2021. Throughout these policy changes, contraception remained easily available. Now, this proposed tax raises concerns among experts about potential consequences, such as a rise in unplanned pregnancies and a higher incidence of sexually transmitted diseases. The declining birth rate is evident in the numbers: only 9.5 million babies were born in 2024, a steep fall from 14.7 million in 2019. This demographic trend has resulted in India now being the world’s most populous country.