Taipei is bracing for escalating tensions as a prominent think tank raises the alarm over China’s potential for a large-scale military operation against the island. The Global Taiwan Institute (GTI) has issued a stark warning that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) could ramp up aggressive maneuvers around Taiwan in the coming years, mirroring tactics seen in other global hotspots.
Drawing parallels to U.S. interests in Venezuela and Greenland, experts note China’s unyielding claim over Taiwan, which views itself as a sovereign nation. GTI Director John Dotson highlighted recent PLA activities, including exercises in April and December that encroached on Taiwan’s southern and southeastern waters. These involved heightened use of the Chinese Coast Guard, framing incursions as law enforcement rather than outright military aggression.
Local reports from the Taipei Times indicate the PLA is projected to achieve full invasion capability by 2027, with 2026 marking a critical milestone. GTI Senior Non-Resident Fellow Ann Kovalevski emphasized that political analyses show China is accelerating its military buildup this year. ‘We could see a massive surge in PRC military capabilities,’ she said, questioning whether Taiwan and the U.S. can match this pace to maintain regional balance.
The think tank’s recent Washington panel, titled ‘Thinking Ahead to Taiwan Policy in 2026,’ underscored China’s intensifying pressure in 2025, including the ‘Justice Mission 2025’ drills. Analysts warn 2027 could be a pivotal turning point in cross-strait relations, echoing former U.S. Indo-Pacific Command chief Admiral Philip Davidson’s 2021 alert that Xi Jinping ordered PLA readiness for Taiwan by that year.
Dotson pointed out China’s pattern of justifying exercises with narratives blaming Taiwan President William Lai’s policies or U.S. arms sales. However, he dismissed these as pretexts, noting such large-scale drills are planned well in advance. Taiwan’s National Security Bureau recently accused the Chinese Communist Party of cyber attacks, disinformation campaigns with over 19,000 contentious messages, and millions of hacking attempts— all part of a broader pressure strategy.
A legislative report detailed 799 suspicious online accounts sowing doubt about U.S. support, President Lai, and Taiwan’s defense readiness. As Beijing’s gray-zone tactics intensify, the international community watches closely, with implications for global stability hanging in the balance.