The Su-75 Checkmate, Russia’s ambitious attempt to create an affordable stealth fighter akin to the US F-35, remains largely a concept despite its 2021 unveiling. Years later, the aircraft exists primarily as mock-ups, marketing materials, and perpetual promises of a future prototype. The stark reality is that the project has stalled, a consequence of Russia’s heavily burdened military-industrial complex. Sanctions and the protracted war in Ukraine have severely depleted resources, compelling a focus on refurbishing aging Soviet-era aircraft, producing drones, and manufacturing large quantities of basic munitions, rather than investing in cutting-edge, clean-sheet designs.
In a nation forced to navigate complex networks to procure essential microelectronics and machine tools due to sanctions, the prospect of fielding a next-generation fighter like the Su-75 is highly improbable. The Checkmate has transitioned from a genuine development project to a symbolic gesture, designed to signal to international observers that Russia maintains a presence in the high-tier military aviation sector, despite the evident strains on its capabilities.
Designed to counteract Russia’s diminishing influence in the global fighter market, the Su-75 was intended to be a testament to innovation under pressure, offering a vision of affordable mass production in an era increasingly defined by AI and autonomous warfare. However, the ongoing conflict has significantly weakened the export performance of Russian defense products. Aircraft that were once perceived as highly capable are now being lost at rates that were previously unthinkable, leading potential foreign customers to reassess their reliance on Russian military technology.
Russia’s aerospace industry is grappling with a significant exodus of engineers, the collapse of vital supply chains, and a severe lack of investment. The Su-75 was envisioned as a project to reverse this decline and demonstrate forward momentum. Yet, progress in advanced aerospace requires a sophisticated industrial base capable of producing advanced composites, reliable engines, secure avionics, and dependable software – all at scale. Moscow’s current capacity falls short of these requirements. This ambitious vision, outpacing actual capabilities, mirrors the situation with the T-14 Armata tank, another high-profile project that has seen limited practical application despite a grand initial presentation.
The war in Ukraine has dictated a fundamental reorientation of Russia’s military aviation priorities. Production facilities are now dedicated to maintaining aging aircraft fleets and implementing incremental upgrades, rather than testing novel stealth aircraft. Available resources are being allocated to producing expendable munitions like glide bombs, cruise missiles, and drones, pushing the development of a new, high-risk fighter jet to the back burner. Even the Su-57, Russia’s flagship fifth-generation fighter, remains in low-volume production. Faced with this reality, the Su-75 is not merely delayed; it has been effectively sidelined. The intense demands of high-intensity warfare demand a focus on resilience, mass production, and cost-effective weaponry. Developing a sophisticated stealth fighter necessitates an integrated technological and industrial ecosystem that Russia can no longer reliably control or access. The Su-75 does not fit into the current strategic calculus driving Moscow’s decisions.