New Delhi, January 6. Bangladesh is gearing up for general elections on February 12, 2026, following the ouster of Sheikh Hasina’s government. Political parties are in high gear, with internal conflicts surfacing as the vote nears. Yet, recent opinion polls show the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) surging ahead.
Last month’s surveys indicated a tight race between BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami. Now, BNP commands 70% support, leaving Jamaat at 19%. Voters are rallying behind the party of the late Khaleda Zia. Tarique Rahman’s return after 17 years has energized BNP ranks.
Eminence Associates for Social Development (EASD) poll reveals the National Citizen Party (NCP), formed post-violence and Hasina’s fall, has just 2.9% backing. BNP’s edge stems from emotional support after Zia’s death, Rahman’s leadership, and public frustration with rising crime blamed on Jamaat radicals.
Intelligence officials warn that Jamaat, backed by Pakistan’s ISI, could turn Bangladesh into an Iran-like state under Sharia, not the peaceful, constitutional democracy people crave. Notably, 60% of former Awami League supporters now back BNP, with 25% leaning Jamaat, amid Awami League’s election ban and targeted attacks on its members.
Women strongly favor BNP (71%), recalling Zia as the nation’s first female PM. BNP dominates in Rajshahi and Chittagong with 70% projected votes. The December 20-January 1 survey shows 77% confident in BNP victory. India eyes a BNP government favorably, with PM Modi’s condolence note to Rahman signaling goodwill.
However, alerts are high: violence spikes, including Hindu killings, with ISI-Jamaat possibly aiming to derail polls. Border vigilance is urged as unrest could spill over.