New Delhi is on high alert as Bangladesh gears up for its parliamentary elections on February 12. Indian intelligence agencies have issued stark warnings about escalating crime and political violence in the lead-up to the polls. With the elections coinciding with a national referendum, officials fear a perfect storm of unrest could erupt.
Last year’s violent ouster of Sheikh Hasina from power spotlighted the role of ISI-backed radical group Jamaat-e-Islami. Sources indicate that if Jamaat pushes aggressively to win but senses defeat, they might unleash extremist elements onto the streets, triggering widespread chaos.
The electoral showdown pits the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) against Jamaat. Observers note that a BNP victory would likely involve Pakistan’s influence, given the concessions on travel, trade, and arms deals granted to Islamabad under Muhammad Yunus’s interim government. Pakistan, however, opposes any warming of ties between Bangladesh and India.
Tarique Rahman’s return has sparked hopes that a BNP-led government might not strain relations with New Delhi, though the party will likely balance overtures to Pakistan as well. Tensions marked India-Bangladesh relations during Khaleda Zia’s tenure, tempering optimism for a BNP comeback.
A Jamaat takeover, intelligence reports suggest, would make it a mere puppet of the ISI. The group would execute Pakistan’s directives without question, explaining Islamabad’s desperation for their success. Yunus could even be installed as president, following multiple meetings with ISI and Jamaat leaders where his candidacy was discussed. In exchange, he’s offered significant favors to both.
Post-Hasina, ISI activity in Bangladesh has surged, largely credited to Jamaat. Yunus lifted the ban on the group upon taking power and released hardcore militants at their behest—moves seen as calculated to foment violence and sway public sentiment.
Recent polls show BNP leading Jamaat, but if this holds through election day, violence is inevitable. Efforts to postpone polls and extend the interim regime are underway. Despite plans for unrest, the Election Commission insists on a smooth process and has barred officials from campaigning for ‘yes’ votes in the referendum.
Approving the July Charter via referendum would bind the new parliament to 84 reform proposals, reshaping executive powers, judiciary, elections, and state structure—replacing ‘Bengali’ with ‘Bangladeshi’ in national identity. India’s borders are on ‘very high alert’ amid fears of infiltration into Northeast states and West Bengal, targeting minorities. Patrols have intensified to curb illegal immigration.
