Dhaka’s political arena fell silent on Tuesday as campaigning for Bangladesh’s general elections on February 12 officially concluded. With just hours remaining before the electoral silence kicked in, leaders from rival alliances made fervent final appeals to voters, promising sweeping changes amid a charged atmosphere.
Opinion polls released in the closing days paint a fiercely contested battle between the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)-led coalition and the Jamaat-e-Islami-led alliance. According to surveys by prominent institutions, the race could see dramatic shifts, with projections varying wildly and fueling intense speculation.
Under the Parliamentary Election Code of Conduct for Political Parties and Candidates Rules, 2025, campaigning halted at dawn on Tuesday—48 hours before polls open. This rule ensures a cooling-off period, allowing voters to reflect without the barrage of political rhetoric. Parties had kicked off their drives on January 22 after receiving election symbols.
The Dhaka Tribune highlighted how recent polls offer conflicting snapshots of voter sentiment. Eminence Associates for Social Development (EASD), using primary sampling units across all 300 constituencies and interviewing 41,500 people, forecasted a strong showing for the BNP alliance with around 208 seats. Jamaat’s bloc trails at 46 seats, according to EASD CEO Shamiul Haider Talukder, who presented findings at Dhaka’s Krishi Bid Institution.
Contrasting sharply, the International Institute of Law and Diplomacy (IILD) predicts a nail-biter: 105 seats for Jamaat’s alliance and 101 for BNP’s. Meanwhile, the Nationalist Research Cell (NRC), backed by Dhaka University alumni, envisions BNP dominance with 77% popular vote translating to 220 seats.
These divergent forecasts have become the talk of the town, shaping narratives and expectations. Analysts caution, however, that such polls might amplify hopes rather than accurately predict outcomes in this polarized environment. As Bangladesh heads to the polls, the true verdict lies with the electorate, promising a pivotal moment in the nation’s democratic journey.