A new dam project on the Kunar River by Afghanistan has ignited serious concerns in Pakistan, which relies heavily on the river’s flow. The Taliban administration is reportedly fast-tracking the dam’s construction, signaling a significant shift in regional water dynamics and potential water scarcity for Pakistan.
This development is widely seen as a response to recent Pakistani military incursions and border incidents. It mirrors strategies employed by other regional players, suggesting a coordinated effort to exert pressure on Pakistan through water management.
The Kunar River plays a critical role in Pakistan’s water infrastructure. It originates in Pakistan, flows into Afghanistan, and then re-enters Pakistan to join the Indus River, the backbone of the nation’s agriculture. By building the Kunar Dam, Afghanistan aims not only to secure 1,000 megawatts of much-needed hydropower but also to significantly curb the water reaching Pakistan.
Experts predict that the dam could decrease Kunar’s water flow into Pakistan by as much as 30%. This reduction would devastate agricultural regions, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab, Pakistan’s breadbasket. The potential impact extends to drinking water availability for millions and a considerable loss in electricity generation capacity.
The Taliban’s directive to use only Afghan companies for the project underscores their commitment to national control over this vital resource. Afghanistan’s Water Minister has publicly affirmed the nation’s right to manage its own water, a clear message to downstream neighbors.
Pakistan’s geographic predicament is compounded by the river’s course. While the Kunar River has origins in Pakistan, its passage through Afghanistan allows the Taliban to control its downstream flow. Without any bilateral water treaty governing the Kunar River, Pakistan is in a vulnerable position, facing a potential water crisis orchestrated by its neighbor.
