New Delhi is set to unveil a revamped GDP series with the base year shifted to 2022-23, a move expected to reinforce India’s position as the world’s fourth-largest economy. This update, releasing this Friday, incorporates advanced data sources like GST returns, promising more accurate reflections of the current economic landscape.
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) formed a sub-committee that recommended ramping up GST data usage in GDP estimates. This is part of a broader overhaul aligning national accounts with contemporary economic structures, including booming digital commerce and services sectors.
Previously, the 2011-12 base year series had limited GST integration in quarterly and select annual accounts. The new methodology introduces better assessments of the unorganized sector, e-vehicle registrations, and natural gas consumption data. Such enhancements aim to capture India’s evolving economy more precisely.
Economic forecasts remain upbeat. Preliminary estimates project 7.4% GDP growth for FY 2025-26, driven primarily by strong domestic demand. SBI Research anticipates 8-8.1% growth in the third quarter of FY 2026, even amid global headwinds. High-frequency indicators from October-December 2025 underscore sustained economic momentum.
Union Bank of India echoes this optimism, forecasting up to 8.3% growth in the current fiscal’s third quarter, shrugging off base effects. Friday’s release will include second advance estimates for FY 2025-26, revised data for the past three years, and quarterly figures under the new base.
This transition not only modernizes India’s economic reporting but also bolsters confidence in its growth trajectory, positioning the nation for sustained expansion in a dynamic global environment.