New Delhi’s trade ties with the United States are set to deliver a massive windfall. A fresh SBI Research report reveals that the recent trade agreement could propel India’s trade surplus with America past the $90 billion mark annually.
This surge promises an additional $45 billion in yearly gains for India, equivalent to about 1.1% of the nation’s GDP. It also hints at potential savings of around $3 billion in foreign exchange reserves, strengthening the country’s economic armor.
The deal positions India strategically, especially following pacts with Europe and the UK. Indian exporters stand to gain immensely without compromising on sensitive domestic sectors.
SBI’s Group Chief Economic Advisor, Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, projects that exports of India’s top 15 products to the US could hit $97 billion within a year. Including others, this might exceed $100 billion, while imports from the US (excluding services) are expected to hover above $50 billion annually.
For context, the trade surplus stood at $40.9 billion in FY 2025 and $26 billion in the April-December period of FY 2026. The trajectory now points firmly upward.
Concerns over the US-Bangladesh trade pact linger, particularly in textiles where the US imports roughly $7.5 billion each from India and Bangladesh. The agreement slashes tariffs on Bangladeshi goods to 19% and offers zero duties on certain apparel if Bangladesh sources cotton and man-made fibers from the US.
Yet, the SBI report dismisses major threats to Indian exporters. Sourcing raw materials from the US would prove costlier for Bangladesh compared to India, preserving competitive edges. Even in a worst-case scenario where the US displaces 10% of India’s cotton and 2% of man-made fiber exports to Bangladesh, losses would cap at a mere $1 billion.
Adding to the optimism, recent European deals unlock duty-free access to a $260 billion apparel market, turbocharging India’s textile sector. This combination of agreements heralds a golden era for Indian trade.