India Market Outlook: RBI Policy and Q2 Results Set the Tone

Mumbai, Oct 4 – A thin trading week left Indian equities under pressure from global cues, pushing the Sensex and Nifty below key psychological thresholds. Investors now await three decisive events next week: the Reserve Bank of India's monetary‑policy review, corporate earnings for the second quarter, and the evolving geopolitical tension in West Asia. A subsiding conflict could spark a swift rally, while a hawkish RBI stance or lingering inflation worries may keep the market cautious.

On Monday the Sensex fell 1.52%, and the weakness continued through Thursday, ending the week 1,670.84 points lower at 71,909.70. The Nifty slid over 3% to close at 22,421.95, marking a broader correction phase according to market analysts.

Technical analysis shows the Nifty closing lower for the eighth straight week, with the weekly RSI near 31, well under the neutral 50 mark. Though the index is edging toward oversold territory, intermittent rebounds are possible at lower levels.

Key resistance zones for the Nifty lie at 22,800 and 23,000, while support is seen around 22,350 and 22,180. Global bond yields, rising energy prices and US economic data such as non‑farm payrolls and the ISM manufacturing PMI remain significant external drivers.

Domestically, August industrial production rose 8% year‑on‑year, outpacing the revised 7.4% in July, with manufacturing up 9% and power‑gas supply up 12.3%, underscoring resilience in the Indian economy.

Energy markets could also influence sentiment. Brent crude has retreated from its peaks as supply from the Hormuz Strait normalises, offering some relief to oil‑importing investors.

Overall, the coming week will be shaped by RBI policy signals, Q2 corporate results, West Asian developments, oil price trends, and US macro data, each capable of swinging market direction.