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Tag: Retail inflation

  • ‘Rate Cuts Expected As Retail Inflation Remains Below RBI Forecast’ | Personal Finance News

    New Delhi: With the inflation in the second quarter of FY25 likely to remain below the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) forecast of 4.4 per cent, amid the cooling of food prices, the central bank may consider rate cuts in the forthcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meetings, industry analysts said on Thursday.  

    The year-on-year inflation rate (3.65 per cent), based on the All India Consumer Price Index (CPI), for the month of August was the second lowest in the last five years. Dr Vijay Kalantri, Chairman of MVIRDC World Trade Center in Mumbai, said that it has now been one year since CPI inflation stayed below the upper threshold of 6 per cent.

    “Food inflation, which had been the primary driver, remained under 6 per cent for the second consecutive month, after exceeding that level for 12 straight months since July 2023,” he said. Conversely, core inflation, driven by a revival in rural consumption, has risen for the third consecutive month to 3.41 per cent.

    “Given the current inflation trends, it is likely that inflation for the second quarter will remain below the RBI’s expectation of 4.4 per cent,” Kalantri said. India’s industrial output growth increased to 4.8 per cent in July, following an upwardly revised growth of 4.7 per cent in the previous month.

    The moderation in the growth of the electricity and mining sectors was balanced by an acceleration in the manufacturing sector. According to Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist, CareEdge Ratings, an improvement in kharif sowing amid a good monsoon bodes well for the private consumption demand. “Overall, a sustained and meaningful improvement in consumption and private capex remains critical for the performance of industrial activity,” she said.

    Sanjeev Agrawal, President, PHDCCI, said that going ahead, it is expected that rising kharif production boosted by an above-normal southwest monsoon will contribute to further softening CPI inflation, with further improvement in food supplies. The consistent growth of IIP, supported by growth in manufacturing, capital goods and intermediate goods indicates steady momentum in India’s manufacturing sector, Agrawal added.

  • India’s Retail Inflation Hits 10-Month Low At 4.85% In March | Economy News

    New Delhi: India’s retail inflation reached a 10-month low this month dropping to 4.85 percent in March 2024 from 5.09 percent in the previous month. This suggests a decrease in inflationary pressures across different sectors of the economy.

    New data from the National Statistical Office (NSO), part of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) reveals that CPI inflation for March was 4.85 percent, slightly lower than the 5.09 percent reported in February. (Also Read: TCS Sees Net Headcount Drop For First Time In 2 Decades)

    This suggests a more stable pricing environment, potentially offering relief to households grappling with rising costs of essential goods and services. Delving deeper into the CPI components shows that food inflation played a significant role in driving the overall moderation. (Also Read: 16th Finance Commission Announces Bumper Job Opening; Salary Upto Rs 1.75 Lakh Per Month –Check Details)

    March witnessed a decrease in food inflation to 8.52 per cent, down from 8.66 percent in February. This downward trend in food prices could alleviate some of the burden on consumers, especially in the wake of recent escalations.

    While urban inflation decreased to 4.14 per cent in March from 4.78 percent in February, rural inflation saw a slight uptick. Rural inflation inched up to 5.45 per cent compared to 4.34 percent in February.

    This disparity between urban and rural inflation rates may reflect variations in consumption patterns and supply chain dynamics across different regions. The moderation in CPI comes amid other positive economic indicators.

    The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for March showed robust growth, expanding by 5.7 percent compared to 3.8 per cent in January 2024. This uptick in industrial activity suggests underlying strength in the economy, potentially contributing to a more balanced inflation outlook.

    Overall, the moderation in CPI inflation, particularly in food prices, coupled with strong industrial growth, paints a favourable picture of the economy’s resilience amidst ongoing global uncertainties.

    The latest inflation data comes a week after the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on April 5 announced the decision to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 6.5 percent for the seventh consecutive time.

    RBI Governor had said that the CPI inflation projections for FY25 has been reduced to 4.5 per cent from earlier 4.7 per cent. However, policymakers will continue to closely monitor inflationary trends to ensure stability and sustainable economic growth in the coming months. (With ANI Inputs)

  • India's Retail Inflation Eases To 4-Month Low At 5.09% In February

    There was no relief as far as pulses are concerned as they turned costlier by 20.47 per cent, while the prices of cereals went up by 7.83 per cent.

  • Expensive vegetable costs push up retail inflation; CPI hits three-month top

    Specific Information Carrier

    NEW DELHI: WITH vegetable costs hovering, retail inflation as measured by way of the Client Worth Index (CPI) rose to a three-month top of four.81 in keeping with cent in June, up from 4.31 in keeping with cent in Might and four.7 in keeping with cent in April. 

    In keeping with govt knowledge launched on Wednesday, the Client Meals Worth Index, which measures adjustments within the retail costs of meals pieces, rose to 4.49 in keeping with cent in June from 2.96 in keeping with cent in Might because of top inflation in greens, pulses, meat and fish.

    The knowledge confirmed that vegetable inflation in June 2023 grew 12.2 in keeping with cent over Might, even if year-on-year costs noticed a decline of one in keeping with cent.  Egg costs grew 5.5 in keeping with cent in June whilst the charges of meat and fish rose 3.8 in keeping with cent.

    “Greens are probably the most extremely risky elements in India’s CPI basket. Inside that, costs of onion, garlic, tomato, potato, and ginger are essentially the most volatile. Ancient knowledge counsel that value spikes in onion and ginger aren’t conditional upon seasonality and will happen all 12 months spherical, then again, that of tomato and potato are seasonal and generally spike all through the summer-monsoon months of June-September,” says Debopam Chaudhuri, leader economist, Piramal Enterprises.

    To deal with the tomato downside, the Centre has made up our minds to acquire them from generating states and promote them at discounted costs in main towns from Friday.

    The Division of Client Affairs has directed the Nationwide Agricultural Cooperative Advertising and marketing Federation and the Nationwide Cooperative Shoppers Federation to acquire the kitchen staple from Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Maharashtra for distribution in main intake centres, the place the retail costs have long gone during the roof. 

    As tomato costs shot as much as absurd ranges, folks have tremendously lower down on its intake, says a survey by way of neighborhood social media platform LocalCircles. Up to 75 in keeping with cent of families selected to chop intake whilst 7 in keeping with cent have totally stopped purchasing tomatoes, notes the survey in line with knowledge from 311 districts. 

    IIP grows 5.2 in keeping with cent in Might

    India’s commercial manufacturing grew 5.2 in keeping with cent in Might, which is considerably less than the year-ago expansion of nineteen.7 in keeping with cent however greater than April’s 4.2 in keeping with cent. Whilst the producing sector’s output grew 5.7 in keeping with cent, the mining sector expanded by way of 6.4 in keeping with cent.

    NEW DELHI: WITH vegetable costs hovering, retail inflation as measured by way of the Client Worth Index (CPI) rose to a three-month top of four.81 in keeping with cent in June, up from 4.31 in keeping with cent in Might and four.7 in keeping with cent in April. 

    In keeping with govt knowledge launched on Wednesday, the Client Meals Worth Index, which measures adjustments within the retail costs of meals pieces, rose to 4.49 in keeping with cent in June from 2.96 in keeping with cent in Might because of top inflation in greens, pulses, meat and fish.

    The knowledge confirmed that vegetable inflation in June 2023 grew 12.2 in keeping with cent over Might, even if year-on-year costs noticed a decline of one in keeping with cent.  Egg costs grew 5.5 in keeping with cent in June whilst the charges of meat and fish rose 3.8 in keeping with cent.googletag.cmd.push(serve as() googletag.show(‘div-gpt-ad-8052921-2’); );

    “Greens are probably the most extremely risky elements in India’s CPI basket. Inside that, costs of onion, garlic, tomato, potato, and ginger are essentially the most volatile. Ancient knowledge counsel that value spikes in onion and ginger aren’t conditional upon seasonality and will happen all 12 months spherical, then again, that of tomato and potato are seasonal and generally spike all through the summer-monsoon months of June-September,” says Debopam Chaudhuri, leader economist, Piramal Enterprises.

    To deal with the tomato downside, the Centre has made up our minds to acquire them from generating states and promote them at discounted costs in main towns from Friday.

    The Division of Client Affairs has directed the Nationwide Agricultural Cooperative Advertising and marketing Federation and the Nationwide Cooperative Shoppers Federation to acquire the kitchen staple from Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Maharashtra for distribution in main intake centres, the place the retail costs have long gone during the roof. 

    As tomato costs shot as much as absurd ranges, folks have tremendously lower down on its intake, says a survey by way of neighborhood social media platform LocalCircles. Up to 75 in keeping with cent of families selected to chop intake whilst 7 in keeping with cent have totally stopped purchasing tomatoes, notes the survey in line with knowledge from 311 districts. 

    IIP grows 5.2 in keeping with cent in Might

    India’s commercial manufacturing grew 5.2 in keeping with cent in Might, which is considerably less than the year-ago expansion of nineteen.7 in keeping with cent however greater than April’s 4.2 in keeping with cent. Whilst the producing sector’s output grew 5.7 in keeping with cent, the mining sector expanded by way of 6.4 in keeping with cent.

  • Meals costs push retail inflation to 17-month prime

    Through Specific Information Provider

    NEW DELHI: Retail inflation soared to a 17-month prime of 6.95% in March with the costs of maximum commodities hovering, information printed via the Nationwide Statistical Administrative center confirmed on Tuesday. It’s the 3rd directly month when the inflation remained above the Reserve Financial institution of India’s convenience zone of 6%. Retail inflation, measured via Shopper Worth Index (CPI), used to be 6.07% in February and six.01% in January. The CPI inflation used to be 5.52% in March 2021. 

    The surge in March retail inflation used to be pushed basically via pricey meals pieces, which registered a 7.7% enlargement in comparison to 5.9% in February. Greens costs rose 11.6%, safe to eat oils 18.8%, meat and fish via 9.6% and cereals via 4.9% throughout the month beneath overview.

    Inflation within the ‘gas and lightweight’ class, alternatively, grew at a slower tempo of seven.5% in March (in comparison to 8.7% in February) as many of the worth hikes in petrol, diesel and LPG took place within the later a part of the month.

    In keeping with the newest information, the costs of maximum commodity teams touched multi-month highs — cereals and merchandise (19 months), milk and merchandise (16 months), vegetable (16 months), clothes (100 months), sneakers (111 months), family items and products and services (102 months), private care (13 months) and meals index (16 months).

    Core inflation, or non-food non-fuel inflation, used to be at 6.4% in March in comparison to 5.8% in February. Core inflation is prone to see a broad-based upward thrust as manufacturers cross on price pressures throughout segments, says ranking company Crisil. The deficient are bearing the weight of inflation probably the most, for the reason that meals recorded the sharpest upward thrust, Crisil provides.

    In the meantime, rural inflation confirmed a better leap of seven.7% than city inflation (6.12%). RBI in its contemporary financial coverage had mentioned that its number one focal point can be to include inflation. The central financial institution additionally revised the 2022-23 inflation estimates to five.7% from its previous forecast of four.5%.