By way of PTI
NEW DELHI: Declining fortunes of the Congress, which even in its previous dangerous runs retained cast presence in south India, weakening of historically robust regional events and its persisted nationwide consolidation have given the BJP the hope that the following Lok Sabha election in 2024 can see it wreck new flooring within the southern area very similar to its display in West Bengal and Odisha in 2019.
The BJP most sensible brass on the celebration’s nationwide government in Hyderabad centered south India, the place barring Karnataka it gained simplest 4 out of 101 seats of 4 states in 2019, because the area for its subsequent spherical of expansion.
A couple of days later the High Minister Narendra Modi-led govt picked 4 eminent individuals from as many southern states as its collection of nominated Rajya Sabha MPs, leaving little to the creativeness in regards to the politics at the back of this.
The BJP’s back-to-back sweep of north and west India has powered its giant win within the 2014 and 2019 polls, and the celebration has repeatedly attempted to make bigger its footprint in east and south India to make sure that any drop in its tally in its strongholds does now not mar its nationwide ambition.
It has damaged new flooring in jap states like West Bengal and Odisha and swept the Northeast however the box past the Vindhyas has up to now proved much less fertile.
Whilst Karnataka has remained a BJP stronghold, extra so in Lok Sabha polls, the rest 4 states of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Kerala and Tamil Nadu had been in large part untouched through the saffron wave which rode on Modi’s attraction to carry the celebration two again to again wins, a feat closing accomplished through the Congress in 1984.
Stipulations for the BJP, its leaders imagine, are riper than ever within the area, with historically robust events just like the TDP in Andhra Pradesh and the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu left weakened and suffering to mount a robust problem to the federal government headed through the YSR Congress and the DMK respectively.
This coupled with the Congress being now not able to supply a countrywide choice has additionally opened new probabilities for the BJP, together with within the Left-ruled Kerala the place the presence of round 45 in line with cent minorities had made the state a specifically difficult nut to crack for the celebration.
The BJP’s contemporary push in peninsular India comes after it gave the impression for just about twenty years that its southern march had did not upward push past the borders of Karnataka the place it first got here to energy in 2008.
The absence of sturdy state leaders and the strategy of deferring to regional allies as a substitute of creating on its base right through the sooner section of its ascent within the Vajpayee-Advani generation of the past due 90s and early 2000s had stalled the BJP within the then undivided state of Andhra Pradesh, the place it had gained 9 seats in 1999 in alliance with the TDP, and Tamil Nadu, the place it bagged 4 individuals in the similar 12 months.
This stays its best possible display within the two states.
Southern India, which fares higher than maximum Indian states on socio-economic signs, has been much less receptive to the BJP’s welfarism type up to now whilst the celebration’s any other plank of Hindutva has additionally now not labored as successfully there as in different areas.
In its extra competitive and bold avatar, the BJP has been increase its state presidents Bandi Sanjay Kumar and Okay Annamalai in Telangana and Tamil Nadu respectively to tackle its opponents.
It let pass of the TDP as an best friend in Andhra Pradesh and has labored to construct itself in Telangana with consistent marketing campaign in opposition to the ruling TRS.
It is helping that the BJP is now in a a lot more at ease place in Parliament than it was once when then PM A B Vajpayee relied on allies.
The BJP has stepped forward on its low base.
It had gained just one seat within the 2018 meeting polls however within the closing Lok Sabha polls gained 4 of 17 seats and adopted up with a win in a few high-stakes bypolls but even so placing up a robust display within the Higher Hyderabad Municipal Company election.
“In each and every of the 4 states, there may be numerous vacant opposition area and we’re in the most productive place to fill it,” a BJP chief, who didn’t need to be named, stated.
On the other hand, it is going to be a steep climb if the celebration has to make a major mark within the area in 2024.
The entire 4 Lok Sabha seats in those 4 states it gained in 2019 got here from Telangana and its tally was once zilch in Andhra, Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
Political observers imagine that ruling regional events in states like Tamil Nadu and Telangana have begun cleverly taking part in up the regional identification and accusing the BJP of pushing its hegemonic non secular and language time table of their bid to the touch a chord with electorate.
This was once a technique constructed round ethnic sub-nationalism the Trinamool Congress led through Leader Minister Mamata Banerjee used successfully to quell the saffron problem within the 2021 meeting polls.
The absence of sturdy state leaders has been observed as a key explanation why at the back of the BJP’s failure to show its fortunes round in those states, and the celebration turns out to have learnt its classes.
Kumar has been casting off ‘Praja Sangrama Yatra’, 3rd section of which can quickly be introduced, to rally give a boost to for the BJP.
Each Kumar (50) and Annamalai (38), a former IPS officer, have a knack of being in information with their robust feedback, deemed arguable now and then.
Of all of the 4 states, Telangana seems to be best possible wager for the celebration as of now.
The win of former minister within the Rao govt, Eatala Rajender, on a BJP price ticket from the Huzurabad seat in opposition to an enormous marketing campaign through the TRS closing 12 months following its wonder victory within the Dubbak bypoll has given important momentum to the celebration’s marketing campaign.
The verdict to carry its nationwide government in Hyderabad adopted through a large public assembly the place its most sensible brass was once provide with Modi being the important thing speaker indicated the BJP’s all out efforts to unseat the TRS within the meeting elections scheduled for subsequent 12 months.
And, unsurprisingly, it was once the decision for a “double engine” govt, a connection with the similar celebration ruling the state which is in energy on the Centre, which rang loudest, together with in Modi’s speech at “Vijay Sankalp Sabha”.
However defeating the TRS, which has had a digital monopoly at the state politics since its delivery, stays an uphill process.
BJP leader spokesperson in Telangana Okay Krishna Sagar Rao informed PTI that in comparison to different southern states, Telangana appears a extra promising prospect for the celebration’s electoral upward push as the expansion in its vote base and seat percentage within the closing parliamentary elections was once significantly excessive compared to Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
He stated that it is going to be an enormous ask for the BJP to extend its power from 3 to 60 MLAs, the bulk mark, however asserted folks see his celebration as a substitute and it’s positive of receiving the huge swing in common mandate had to finish the TRS reign.
The BJP’s efforts to realize some foothold in Tamil Nadu politics ruled through Dravidian events met partial luck within the the native frame polls and Annamalai has now claimed that his celebration would win 25 Lok Sabha seats in 2024.
Not too long ago, the celebration held a state-wide starvation strike in opposition to the ruling DMK and Union Minister of State V Okay Singh chaired a gathering of its individuals in southern Tamil Nadu on July 6.
After the DMK captured energy in 2021, political watchers say the BJP has made efforts to take at the ruling celebration with the foremost opposition AIADMK mired in inside variations and now not taking at the state govt successfully.
The BJP hopes that the nomination of song maestro Ilaiyarajaa as a Rajya Sabha MP will lend a hand it ring a bell with Tamil electorate.
Early this 12 months, the BJP, which fought the native polls by myself, outperformed regional gamers and gained 22 seats in municipal companies, 56 in municipalities and 230 on the town panchayats.
Within the 2021 Meeting election, as a junior spouse of the AIADMK, the BJP had gained 4 meeting seats.
The BJP’s political push in Kerala had just about stalled after it did not win a unmarried seat within the closing meeting polls.
It hopes the Rajya Sabha nomination of mythical athlete P T Usha will generate the political tailwind it must make bigger its footprint.
BJP state basic secretary George Kurian, on the other hand, performed down its political import.
“Do you assume Usha has any politics? No. Her RS nomination is a message. It’s true that High Minister Narendra Modi has all the time gained the hearts of folks thru such certain messages,” he stated, including whether or not the federal government’s motion would have any political have an effect on in long run is a unique subject.
The Modi govt has taken into consideration her illustrious occupation, he stated.
Kerala’s ruling CPI(M) and opposition Congress stated makes an attempt to make political achieve thru Usha’s nomination won’t paintings, at the same time as they lauded the verdict.
CPI (M) politbureau member M A Child stated, “Other people will make a decision whether or not to increase their give a boost to to the BJP now not in keeping with the individuals they’re nominating to Rajya Sabha however in keeping with their efficiency in ruling the rustic.
” As then BJP president, Amit Shah, now Union house minister, had stitched up an bold plan to make bigger the celebration’s footprints in “Coromandel” states, a connection with states alongside the south and jap coasts.
This met partial luck because the celebration publish its best possible ever display through profitable 17 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in West Bengal in 2019.
It additionally gained 8 of the 21 seats in Odisha, a state the place it had declined significantly after the ruling BJD snapped ties with the celebration, but even so 4 of 17 in Telangana.
Whether or not its Coromandel plan will carry it a harvest within the southern states in 2024 very similar to what it did in West Bengal and Odisha in 2019 shall be keenly watched.