Lucknow: The result of the by-elections in two Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh have given a unique form of message within the politics of Uttar Pradesh. The message is in regards to the cave in of a bigger equation. After the UP elections 2022, the instances of displeasure of the Muslim group of the Samajwadi Birthday celebration had been often coming to the fore. Azam Khan’s displeasure used to be heard popping out of the prison partitions. On the similar time, after the displeasure of Nahid Hasan and Shahjil Islam, there used to be a spherical of resignations at an greater stage. When Azam Khan got here out of Sitapur prison on Would possibly 20, no socialist chief used to be provide there. After this, when Azam Khan and Akhilesh met within the first week of June, each effort used to be made to turn the rift between the 2 leaders much less. However, all over the campaigning for the by-election, each the leaders didn’t seem at the similar degree. This turns out to have a right away have an effect on at the election effects.
The result of the Lok Sabha by-elections 2022 are a right away blow to the Samajwadi Birthday celebration. Despite the fact that the BJP had breached the SP’s stronghold in Rampur within the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, it used to be thought to be a hoax. Then BJP had registered victory within the combat of SP and BSP. This time the election used to be two-polar. At the one hand, the Samajwadi Birthday celebration used to be adopting 50 p.c of the Muslim vote as its personal. For this, the celebration gave Azam Khan the suitable to take all choices. Azam Khan made Asim Raza a candidate, however he used to be now not utterly a hit in growing an environment in his desire. Rampur as soon as once more gave a blow to Azam Khan. However, the most important blow to the Samajwadi Birthday celebration has come from Azamgarh.
If we have a look at the equation of Azamgarh, then it’s somewhat appropriate for the victory equation of SP. Right here, about 27 p.c Yadav and 23 p.c Muslim electorate in combination come to a decision the election victory. The Azamgarh Lok Sabha seat is composed of Mehnagar, Azamgarh Sadar, Mubarakpur, Sagdi and Gopalpur meeting seats. Mehnagar meeting seat is reserved for Scheduled Caste. Right here a couple of lakh Dalit and greater than 70 thousand Yadav electorate write the victory letter. The choice of Rajbhar and Chauhan electorate could also be greater than 35 thousand. The choice of Muslim electorate on this seat could also be greater than 20 thousand. Azamgarh Sadar seat has the utmost choice of greater than 75 thousand Yadav electorate. The choice of Dalit and Muslim electorate could also be just about 60 thousand.
Azamgarh Lok Sabha seat used to be captured by means of Bharatiya Janata Birthday celebration within the 12 months 2009, however this victory used to be extra of Ramakant Yadav than BJP. Ramakant Yadav then got here to the BJP by means of SP, BSP. However, within the 12 months 2014, BJP fielded Ramakant Yadav in opposition to Mulayam Singh Yadav and he misplaced. Within the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Akhilesh Yadav defeated Dinesh Lal Yadav of BJP by means of greater than 2 lakh 59 thousand votes. My Equation gave the impression to be running completely on these kind of events. When the Dalit vote financial institution got here in combination in 2019 with My Equation, then the margin of victory were given larger. However, this time the entire equation has modified.
In each Azamgarh and Rampur Lok Sabha seats, BJP appears to be destroying my equation. In Azamgarh Lok Sabha seat by-election, BJP is getting round 35 p.c votes. It’s visual equivalent to the vote proportion received within the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. However, the Samajwadi Birthday celebration appears to be caught at 33 according to cent, falling from 60 according to cent vote percentage. On the similar time, Bahujan Samaj Birthday celebration is noticed getting 33 p.c votes. In Rampur Lok Sabha seat, BJP is getting round 52 according to cent votes and SP 46 according to cent votes. If we have a look at the vote proportion present in those two seats, then there appears to be a large trade within the balloting trend.
In Azamgarh, the vote proportion that Dinesh Lal Yadav Nirhua had were given in 2019, it sort of feels to be coming as soon as once more. In addition they come from Yadav caste. Dharmendra Yadav of Mulayam circle of relatives could also be from this caste, however Guddu Jamali of BSP spoiled the entire sport. He separated the Muslim vote financial institution from the Muslim-Yadav equation of the Samajwadi Birthday celebration. The BJP used to be without delay profiting from this. On the similar time, in Rampur, which has greater than 50 p.c Muslim vote financial institution, BJP candidate Ghanshyam Lodhi were given greater than 50 p.c votes. Azam’s candidate Asim Raza may get simplest 46 p.c votes.
The results of the election in Rampur Lok Sabha seat has turn into transparent that there used to be a cut up within the Muslim vote financial institution. Ghanshyam Lodhi used to be within the Samajwadi Birthday celebration camp until January this 12 months. On January 14, his political turmoil ended and he got here to the BJP’s court docket. The BJP didn’t take a look at him within the meeting elections, however within the Lok Sabha by-elections, Azam Khan’s former aide used to be installed entrance of his personal candidate. This shut buddy of Azam destroyed his castle. The contribution of Naved Mian of Rampur could also be obviously visual on this. Why Azam Khan had focused the Nawab circle of relatives within the electoral fray, it may be guessed now.