The Indian government’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty following the recent terrorist incident in Jammu and Kashmir has triggered a strong reaction from Pakistan. Pakistani officials are concerned that this move could lead to economic hardship and potentially famine. Pakistan has sought international support and issued warnings, including threats of military action.
India has responded by stating that it will not allow water and conflict to coexist. It has disregarded Pakistan’s warnings and signaled that ‘Operation Sindoor’ will continue. This situation has led to speculation about a potential conflict over the Indus Waters Treaty. The following report examines the threats made by Pakistani authorities and outlines India’s strategic plans.
Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has warned of war if India suspends the treaty or builds dams. He views Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s announcement of water projects on the Indus River as a tactic to limit Pakistan’s water supply. Zardari has addressed the issue of India’s water policies during his international trips.
Bhutto has emphasized the readiness of the people of Sindh to protect the Indus River. He has also warned that if another war erupts, Pakistan could regain control over all six of its rivers, and has previously commented on the treaty.
In June, Bhutto stated that Pakistan would engage in war if India denied Pakistan its water share under the Indus Waters Treaty. He criticized India’s decision to suspend the agreement and threatened to restrict India’s water supply.
Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir warned that Pakistan would destroy Indian infrastructure if India impeded the flow of water to Pakistan. He also claimed that the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty puts 250 million people at risk of starvation and that Pakistan is ready to destroy any Indian dams.
Prime Minister Modi detailed ‘Operation Sindoor’ in the Lok Sabha on July 29th, providing specifics on the government’s actions following the terrorist incident in Pahalgam. Modi stated that his administration had ended the one-sided trade of terrorism, revoking Pakistan’s MFN status, enforcing visa restrictions, and closing the Attari-Wagah border.
Referring to the Indus Waters Treaty, Modi mentioned that the agreement, signed by a former Prime Minister, involved rivers historically significant to India. These rivers, originating in India, are essential to the citizens, especially farmers in Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir. The government has decided to temporarily suspend the Indus Waters Treaty, prioritizing national interests.
India is implementing plans to enhance its water extraction from the Indus River system. The primary focus is on the Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus rivers, which primarily supply water to Pakistan. A key part of this plan is to extend the Ranbir Canal on the Chenab River. The government aims to extend it, increasing its water diversion capacity.
In addition, India is considering more irrigation and hydropower projects that could reduce water availability downstream. These projects include the construction of dams with vast water storage capabilities.
The Indus Waters Treaty was agreed upon by then Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and then Pakistani President Ayub Khan. The World Bank facilitated the treaty in 1960, allocating water from six rivers between India and Pakistan. India controls the eastern rivers, while Pakistan controls the western rivers. The treaty allows India to use the western rivers for irrigation and hydropower projects but limits its actions to avoid impacting the water flow to Pakistan.
