The upcoming assembly elections in Bihar, scheduled for October-November, have ignited political fervor across the state. The NDA, led by Nitish Kumar, is strategizing to maintain its hold on power. The coalition is relying on the combined influence of Nitish Kumar and Narendra Modi. The political atmosphere has been molded by the NDA, with a clear advantage seen after ‘Operation Sindoor’. The NDA is building a complex strategy with caste dynamics, nationalism, and Hindutva. The question is whether the duo of Tejaswi Yadav and Rahul Gandhi will be able to penetrate the NDA’s strategic approach.
The political alliance of CM Nitish and PM Modi has further strengthened the alliance by focusing on a refined caste equation. The positive momentum created after ‘Operation Sindoor’ by the Indian Army and the Modi government’s decision to conduct a caste census has taken a significant issue away from the opposition. The BJP is planning to focus on these very issues. Without challenging this strategy, it will be difficult for the India alliance to end their political exile.
‘Operation Sindoor’: A Strategic Tool for the NDA. With the first assembly election occurring after ‘Operation Sindoor’, PM Modi had vowed to eliminate terrorists from Bihar. The Indian Army successfully took out terrorist hideouts in Pakistan via ‘Operation Sindoor’. The BJP and its allies are attributing the success to PM Modi, creating a favorable narrative. This is how the NDA has set the stage to push nationalism as a key political agenda in Bihar.
There are already strong anti-Pakistan sentiments in Bihar. The BJP hopes that ‘Operation Sindoor’ will have a positive effect, similar to the air and surgical strikes. PM Modi’s frequent mentions of Operation Sindoor in Bihar rallies is influencing the political climate in favor of the NDA. Tejaswi and Rahul Gandhi will need to find a counter to the NDA’s nationalistic stance.
NDA’s Strong Caste Equations in Bihar. The NDA coalition in Bihar includes the BJP, JDU, Chirag Paswan’s LJP, Jitanram Manjhi’s HAM, and Upendra Kushwaha’s party. JDU and BJP have made efforts to strengthen caste equations. The BJP’s core voter base is Rajputs, Brahmins, Bhumihars, Kayasthas, and Vaishyas. The party has also made inroads into OBC and Dalit votes. Nitish Kumar’s JDU relies on Kurmi and EBCs vote bank. Manjhi has a strong base among the Musahars, while Chirag Paswan holds influence in the Dusadh community among the Dalits. Upendra Kushwaha’s political success depends on the Koiri votes.
The NDA has formulated a plan to contest the Bihar elections, focusing on upper castes, Kurmis, EBCs, Koiris, and Dalits. The NDA aims to secure around 65% of the votes in Bihar. Without disrupting the NDA’s caste-based strategy, it will be challenging for Rahul Gandhi and Tejaswi Yadav to gain power in Bihar.
NDA’s Caste Census Strategy. Bihar’s politics largely revolves around caste dynamics. OBCs constitute 65% of the population, and Dalits constitute 17%. Rahul Gandhi and Tejaswi Yadav were planning to challenge the Modi government on the caste census. The Modi government has taken away one of the key points of the India alliance by deciding to include a caste census with the upcoming census.
The NDA has a more robust caste-based strategy than the India alliance. The recent announcement by the Modi government regarding the caste census is expected to benefit the NDA. Nitish Kumar had already conducted a caste survey in Bihar, and the Modi government’s decision to conduct a caste census will be significant in the elections. Tejaswi and Rahul will need to identify new issues to counter the NDA’s strategy.
Using the Names and Work of Modi-Nitish. The NDA plans to contest the Bihar assembly elections based on PM Modi and CM Nitish Kumar’s work and reputations. Nitish Kumar will be the NDA’s Chief Minister candidate in 2025. The election strategy focuses on CM Nitish Kumar’s leadership and his government’s initiatives. PM Modi is considered the most popular face of the NDA. The NDA constituent parties have all decided to contest the Bihar elections based on PM Modi’s name and accomplishments.
Since the Lok Sabha elections, PM Modi has been focused on Bihar. By visiting Bihar frequently, PM Modi is focused on both delivering development and shaping the political environment. The opposition’s response to the Modi-Nitish partnership is the Rahul-Tejaswi duo. The outcome of the Bihar elections will reveal which combination will resonate most with the voters.
BJP’s Hindutva Agenda. The BJP is working to strengthen its Hindutva agenda in Bihar. The opposition faces a challenge in countering the BJP’s Hindutva approach. The BJP has deployed Union Minister Giriraj Singh, who is known for his strong Hindutva stance, to mobilize BJP workers and engage with the majority voters. He also organized a Sanatan Yatra to unite Hindu votes.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah has announced the construction of a Mata Sita temple in Bihar, similar to the Ram temple. The BJP’s strategy is to consolidate Hindu votes through Hindutva, considering the prominent role of caste-based politics in Bihar. The BJP is well-prepared for the Bihar elections, confident in its strategy and hoping to secure another term under Nitish Kumar. The BJP is considering all aspects, including caste dynamics, sympathy votes, and the impact of Operation Sindoor. The party is making every effort to ensure electoral success.