Bihar Elections: Decoding NDA’s Strategy, From Seat-Sharing Dynamics to Nitish Kumar’s Well-being

As Bihar gears up for its assembly elections, the NDA is actively engaged in strategic planning, with seat distribution being a key focus. Current plans suggest that the seat-sharing arrangement will align with the Lok Sabha election formula, sparking talks from Patna to Delhi. In the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP contested 17 seats, the JDU 16, the LJP 5, and the HAM and Rashtriya Lok Morcha 1 seat each. The NDA is carefully considering Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s health as part of its electoral strategy. The final seat allocation is scheduled closer to the election to avoid complications, with the potential for swapping seats where the NDA has faced defeats in the past two elections. In terms of seat distribution, the JDU is likely to contest more seats than the BJP. The JDU could contest around 102-103 seats, while the BJP could contest 101-102 seats out of 243. The remaining seats will be allocated to the Lok Janshakti Party, Hindustan Awam Morcha, and Rashtriya Lok Morcha, with the LJP likely to secure the largest share due to its parliamentary presence. Caste equations will also be a deciding factor. The NDA intends to ensure that all castes are represented in the candidate selection. The NDA has established a seat-by-seat strategy for the election, along with the identification of potential defectors from both the NDA and the opposition. The NDA believes that the opposition’s focus on Nitish Kumar’s health will be strategically beneficial to the NDA. Previously, in the 2010 assembly elections, the JDU and the BJP contested together with the JDU contesting 141 seats and the BJP 102. In 2015, Nitish Kumar moved away from the NDA, aligning with the RJD. In the 2020 elections, Nitish Kumar again partnered with the BJP, where JDU contested 115 seats, and the BJP 110.