The political landscape of Bihar is abuzz with anticipation as Prime Minister Narendra Modi prepares to lead the NDA’s campaign for the 2025 elections. His initial rallies on October 24 in Samastipur and Begusarai are not merely campaign stops but strategic touchpoints designed to energize the party base and assess public sentiment.
The BJP’s strategy heavily leans on PM Modi’s charisma and crowd-pulling ability. Historical data from the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections shows a robust correlation: the NDA achieved a 61 percent strike rate in seats where the Prime Minister held rallies. This indicates that his campaigning played a crucial role in the alliance’s victory.
In 2020, the NDA, a coalition of BJP, JD(U), VIP, and HAM, benefited from Modi’s 12 rallies that covered 110 constituencies, leading to 67 wins. However, the electoral map reveals pockets of success and failure. For instance, areas like Sasaram and Patna saw the opposition gain an advantage, while Bhagalpur and the Champaran districts demonstrated strong NDA performance under Modi’s campaign influence.
Further analysis shows high success rates in regions like Darbhanga, Araria, and Saharsa, where the NDA won 17 out of 20 covered seats. Conversely, other districts experienced more balanced outcomes or even opposition gains, underscoring the nuanced political dynamics of Bihar.
Bihar’s electoral history offers a compelling lesson from 2015. When PM Modi campaigned extensively, his rallies did not translate into sufficient votes for the NDA, particularly when he was not aligned with Nitish Kumar. That year, despite 26 rallies covering a significant number of seats, the NDA secured only a 27 percent strike rate.
For the 2025 elections, PM Modi is scheduled to campaign extensively for six days, with early rallies focused on key constituencies. Political commentators highlight the critical synergy between PM Modi and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. Their collaboration in 2020 led to victory, whereas their opposition in 2015 resulted in defeat, a pattern that observers believe is key to understanding Bihar’s electoral arithmetic.
The BJP is strategically deploying PM Modi, mindful of past lessons learned from electoral outcomes in other states. The central question for the upcoming Bihar elections is whether the established Modi-Nitish alliance can replicate its 2020 success and convert campaign fervor into tangible electoral gains.