As Bihar heads towards the final vote count on November 14, exit polls released on November 12 paint a picture of a competitive electoral landscape. Projections from agencies like Axis My India and Today’s Chanakya suggest that the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to emerge as the leading force in the 243-member Bihar Assembly, though the opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB) is expected to put up a robust challenge.
According to Axis My India, the NDA is anticipated to win between 121 and 141 seats. The MGB, led by the RJD, is projected to secure 98 to 118 seats. Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) is expected to win a minimal number of seats, potentially up to two. In a more decisive prediction, Today’s Chanakya forecasts 160 seats for the NDA, 77 for the MGB, and 6 for other parties.
An aggregation of nine exit polls released on November 11 indicates a broader consensus favoring the NDA with approximately 147 seats, while the MGB is estimated to get around 90 seats. The Jan Suraaj Party is expected to secure one seat, and other smaller parties might collectively win about five.
Despite the projections of an NDA lead, pollsters stress the closeness of the election. Pradeep Gupta of Axis My India emphasized that it’s a ‘close election’ and pointed to the Jan Suraaj Party’s performance as a key variable, estimating its vote share at around 4%. He suggested that a portion of these votes might have been drawn from traditional NDA voters, potentially impacting seat wins.
There’s also a prevailing view among analysts that new political entrants are frequently undersampled in pre-election surveys. If Kishor’s party manages to garner a higher vote share, say 8-10%, it could significantly alter the final seat distribution.
Looking back at the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, exit polls had largely predicted a wave in favor of the RJD, forecasting significant losses for the NDA. However, the final results saw the NDA securing 125 seats, narrowly crossing the majority mark of 122, while the MGB secured 110 seats. The RJD emerged as the single largest party with 75 seats, with the BJP securing 74.
An extraordinary aspect of this election cycle is the record-breaking voter turnout and a historic shift in gender participation. Bihar recorded its highest-ever voter turnout at 66.91%. Significantly, women voters outnumbered men for the first time. Data shows 71.6% of women cast their ballots, a stark contrast to the 62.8% turnout among men, marking the widest gender disparity in the state’s voting history. This increased engagement from female voters is seen as a crucial factor that could influence the final results and shape the future political landscape of Bihar.