After a period of recovering air passenger numbers following the end of India-Pakistan hostilities, June saw a renewed downturn, as per recent data from the Ministry of Civil Aviation. The average daily passengers declined in May 2025 due to the India-Pakistan geopolitical conflict but recovered briefly before the unfortunate Air India accident on June 12, 2025. The average daily passengers stood at 490,000 in April. Despite the recovery post-ceasefire, the average daily passenger numbers again declined after the Air India incident to 460,000.
International travel has also decreased since May 2025, partially due to the India-Pakistan conflict. Air India reduced its international flights by 15% using wide-body aircraft following the Air India-171 flight crash in Ahmedabad, where 241 people died. Air India canceled 83 wide-body operations between June 12 and June 17, 2025. Average daily international passengers declined from 118,000 in April to 113,000 in May and 102,000 in June.
The weakness in Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) price could offset the weakness seen in passenger demand in May/June 2025. Average ATF prices declined 8.2% on a QoQ basis in QIFY26 to Rs 86k/KL vs. Rs 94k/KL in Q4FY25. The rise in crude oil prices, which have increased by approximately 20% since the start of June to USD 77/bbl as of June 19, may pose a threat to earnings in the seasonally weak Q2.