In a stark warning amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi has cautioned that prolonged conflict could send crude oil prices soaring to $150 per barrel within weeks. Speaking to the Financial Times, al-Kaabi highlighted the risk of Gulf exporters declaring force majeure, halting supplies and triggering a massive energy crisis.
The minister painted a dire picture: if shipping through vital straits remains disrupted, oil markets could face unprecedented spikes. Natural gas prices might quadruple to $40 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). ‘Countries that haven’t declared force majeure yet will likely do so in the coming days if the situation persists,’ he stated. All Gulf exporters would follow suit to avoid legal liabilities.
Recent events have already jolted markets. Brent crude futures surged over 20% this week, closing above $89 per barrel on Friday after a 3% daily gain. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 25%, hitting $86. These are the highest levels since April 2024.
Qatar, the world’s second-largest LNG producer, has already invoked force majeure at its massive Ras Laffan plant following an Iranian drone strike. Damage assessments are ongoing, but even if attacks cease immediately, logistical hurdles could delay full exports for weeks to months. Only six or seven of Qatar’s 128 LNG carriers are currently available for loading.
Shipping firms are pulling back, with at least 10 vessels affected by attack reports and skyrocketing insurance premiums. Iran’s missile and drone assaults, including on a Bahrain oil refinery, have fueled the chaos. As global economies brace for impact, al-Kaabi’s words underscore the fragility of energy supply chains in a volatile region.