Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi has issued a stark warning that could reshape global energy markets. If the escalating conflict in the Middle East persists just a few more days, oil-exporting nations in the Gulf may declare force majeure, halting shipments and sending crude prices skyrocketing to $150 per barrel within weeks. Natural gas prices could quadruple to $40 per MMBtu, he told the Financial Times.
The minister painted a dire picture of supply disruptions. ‘Countries that haven’t declared force majeure yet will likely do so in the coming days if the situation continues,’ al-Kaabi said. He emphasized that all Gulf exporters would need to follow suit to avoid legal liabilities for unmet contracts.
Key chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz are at risk. Tankers unable to navigate these waters would trigger chaos. ‘In two to three weeks, we could see Brent crude at $150,’ he predicted, with LNG prices surging accordingly.
Markets are already reacting sharply. Brent crude futures jumped over 20% this week, closing Friday above $89 per barrel after a 3% daily gain. WTI climbed 25%, hitting $86. Both benchmarks reached their highest levels since April 2024.
Qatar, the world’s second-largest LNG producer, has already declared force majeure at its massive Ras Laffan plant following an Iranian drone attack. Damage assessments are ongoing, and even if attacks cease immediately, full export operations could take weeks to months to resume. Only a handful of Qatar’s 128 LNG carriers are currently available for loading.
Shipping firms are pulling back amid attack reports on at least 10 vessels and soaring insurance premiums. Iran’s missile and drone strikes, including on a Bahrain oil refinery, have fueled the price surge. As tensions simmer, the world braces for potential energy shocks that could ripple through economies everywhere.