In a stark warning amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi has cautioned that prolonged conflict could send crude oil prices soaring to $150 per barrel within weeks. Speaking to the Financial Times, al-Kaabi highlighted the risk of Gulf exporters declaring force majeure, halting shipments through critical straits and triggering a massive energy crisis.
The minister painted a dire picture: if tankers and vessels can’t navigate the Strait of Hormuz due to ongoing hostilities, oil markets would face immediate shortages. Natural gas prices could quadruple to $40 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). ‘Countries that haven’t declared force majeure yet may do so in the coming days,’ he said, emphasizing that all Gulf exporters would likely follow suit to avoid legal liabilities.
Recent events have already rattled markets. Iran’s drone strikes hit Qatar’s massive Ras Laffan LNG plant, the world’s second-largest producer of liquefied natural gas. Qatar has invoked force majeure, and damage assessments are underway. Even if attacks cease, logistical hurdles mean full export recovery could take weeks to months. Only a handful of Qatar’s 128 LNG carriers are currently available for loading.
Oil benchmarks are surging. Brent crude futures jumped over 20% this week, closing above $89 per barrel on Friday after a 3% daily gain. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 25%, hitting $86. These are the highest levels since April 2024. Shipping firms are pulling back, with at least 10 vessels affected by attacks and skyrocketing insurance premiums.
Iran’s missile and drone assaults, including on a Bahrain oil refinery, have fueled the spike. As global economies brace for impact, al-Kaabi’s words underscore the fragility of energy supply chains in a volatile region. Consumers worldwide may soon feel the pinch at the pumps and in energy bills, with no quick resolution in sight.