New Delhi is bracing for robust economic data as India’s GDP growth for the third quarter of the current fiscal year is projected to hit 8.3 percent. Analysts at Union Bank of India attribute this surge primarily to heightened consumer demand triggered by recent reductions in Goods and Services Tax (GST) rates. However, the high base effect from the previous year continues to play a moderating role.
The bank’s comprehensive report forecasts Gross Value Added (GVA) growth reaching 8 percent in Q3 of FY26, up from 6.5 percent in the same period last year, though slightly below the 8.1 percent recorded in the prior quarter. ‘The GDP figures for Q3 FY26, due on February 27, are expected to clock in at 8.3 percent, a significant jump from 6.4 percent year-ago,’ the report states.
Nominal GDP growth is anticipated to moderate to 8.5 percent, down from 8.7 percent in Q2 and 10.3 percent last year, owing to easing inflation and a corresponding dip in the GDP deflator. These projections are based on the older base year, as clarity remains elusive on impacts from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation’s (MoSPI) base year revision.
Looking ahead, FY26 growth outlook remains strong with positive early signals for FY27. Yet, annual estimates will require recalibration once the new base year details emerge. MoSPI is set to release GDP data on Friday using the revised 2022-23 base year, incorporating fresh inputs to bolster estimates for institutional sectors, private corporates, and MSMEs—areas long plagued by data gaps.
This anticipated growth underscores India’s resilient economic momentum amid policy tweaks like GST rationalization, positioning the nation for sustained expansion despite global headwinds.