As India gears up for the Rajya Sabha elections next month, the political landscape is buzzing with intense strategizing across 10 states where 37 seats will go to the polls on March 16. This biennial battle isn’t just about NDA versus the opposition INDIA bloc; it’s increasingly becoming a test of cohesion within the ruling alliance itself.
Of the 37 seats, 25 are currently held by the INDIA alliance, leaving 12 with NDA partners. BJP and its allies see a golden opportunity to expand their upper house footprint by 3-4 seats, but internal frictions in key states like Bihar and Maharashtra could derail these gains. The real drama unfolds not in confronting the opposition, but in managing alliance partners’ ambitions.
In Bihar, five seats are up for grabs, requiring 41 votes per seat. NDA commands 202 MLAs but needs 205 to secure all. The opposition Mahagathbandhan has 35, bolstered by AIMIM’s 5 and BSP’s 1, potentially snagging one seat if united. NDA’s plan: two for BJP, two for JD(U), and one for a smaller ally. But LJP (Ram Vilas), HAM, and RLSP are all clamoring for it, turning seat-sharing into the biggest hurdle.
Maharashtra presents another tightrope. Seven seats demand 37 votes each in the 288-member assembly. Mahayuti’s 235 MLAs position them for six wins, but Shiv Sena (Shinde) demands two, while BJP eyes three plus one for RPI. A wildcard: Sharad Pawar’s potential independent run could trigger cross-voting, upsetting the applecart despite numerical strength.
Southern and eastern states add layers. Tamil Nadu’s six seats favor DMK with four, AIADMK one, leaving one contested. Bengal’s five see TMC holding four, with BJP eyeing CPI(M)’s. Odisha’s four could shift to 3-1 BJP-BJD. Assam, Haryana, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Himachal complete the picture with predictable outcomes barring surprises.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s two-day Bihar visit on February 25 underscores the stakes, likely including a huddle with CM Nitish Kumar. If BJP masters alliance arithmetic, Rajya Sabha gains await. Failure, and this poll becomes a referendum on NDA solidarity.