Rising political chaos and security threats in Pakistan are casting a long shadow over China’s ambitious China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). A new report warns that if Chinese officials can’t safely reach Islamabad, Beijing may have to rethink its deep ties with the troubled nation. Every fresh crisis in the Pakistani capital now endangers CPEC’s momentum, undermining billions in Chinese investments across the region.
The Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) in Italy highlights how China’s dreams of dominating Afghanistan and Pakistan while building economic strongholds on its western and southwestern borders are slipping away amid recent turmoil. Tensions peaked in October 2025 with deadly missile strikes along the Pakistan-Afghan border, exacerbating a downward spiral in relations since the Taliban reclaimed Kabul in September 2021.
Beijing, which bet $62 billion on Pakistan nearly a decade ago, is growing deeply anxious. Surging domestic militancy and hostile neighbors are compounding Islamabad’s woes, turning what was a strategic jackpot into a high-risk gamble for China.
CPEC represents China’s gateway to the Arabian Sea through a web of infrastructure, anchored by the Gwadar Port in Balochistan. Yet, relentless internal strife is derailing expected returns. Key projects face delays, with progress stalled on multiple fronts.
Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) attacks have crippled major initiatives, especially Gwadar development. Security deteriorated so badly that in late 2024, the CPEC-funded Gwadar Airport inauguration went virtual to shield top officials from threats.
Pakistan also grapples with Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which has relentlessly targeted security forces and Chinese projects in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. These assaults underscore the precarious environment jeopardizing China’s regional vision. As instability festers, the future of CPEC hangs in the balance, prompting urgent questions about Beijing’s next moves.