Washington, January 16 – Experts anticipate India’s upcoming Union Budget to emphasize continuity in fiscal prudence, macroeconomic stability, and heightened investments in high-technology sectors. Senior researcher at ORF America, Anit Mukherjee, shared these insights in an exclusive interview, underscoring the government’s commitment to its established policy trajectory during the midpoint of its term.
Mukherjee highlighted that rather than introducing sweeping changes, the budget will signal steady progress. ‘This is the middle of the government’s tenure, so expect reinforcement of existing policies,’ he noted. Recent announcements, particularly reforms in rural employment schemes previously known as MGNREGA, exemplify this gradual reform approach.
The scheme is evolving from direct cash transfers to fostering sustainable livelihoods and job opportunities. ‘Key announcements have already been made, shifting focus from mere benefit transfers to enhancing employment and self-reliance,’ Mukherjee explained. This aligns with adapting to India’s changing economy and labor market needs after two decades of the program’s operation.
On fiscal health, Mukherjee pointed to potential revenue growth despite GST reductions. India’s external trade remains stable, offering optimism. He suggested diversifying trade partners beyond traditional blocs could strengthen the current account balance, especially by engaging more with non-US markets.
Public investment in strategic areas like AI and high-tech industries is crucial, where India already shows competitive edge. ‘We must continue investing in emerging sectors to bolster competitiveness,’ he urged. Reforms in rural programs include modernizing data systems and granting states greater implementation flexibility while preserving core objectives.
The scheme’s original intent—to provide employment during critical periods like off-seasons or droughts—remains vital amid climate change. Mukherjee also addressed US trade policies’ immediate impacts, noting government measures to support domestic industries. Optimism surrounds potential India-US FTA, which could positively influence the economic environment.
In summary, Finance Minister is expected to prioritize macroeconomic goals, ensuring sustained growth through targeted investments and reforms.
