Lucknow: The account of the 2022 meeting elections (UP Meeting Election 2022) has come to the fore. No matter used to be in want remained in want and no matter used to be in opposition remained in opposition. However the adjustments within the figures of seats and votes also are indicating new equations within the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in UP. If the balloting trend like 2022 is repeated in 2024, the BJP’s seats might lower by way of 10% (BJP Vote Percentage). On the similar time, greater than 1 / 4 of the seats are anticipated to move within the account of the SP alliance. On the other hand, the problems, equations and faces of the Lok Sabha elections are totally other from the ones of the Meeting.
Within the contemporary result of the UP meeting, the SP alliance has were given 125 seats. Its vote proportion has higher to 36%. On this, SP has were given greater than 32% votes. On the similar time, the vote proportion of BJP higher to 41.29%, which is nearly two p.c greater than in 2017. The coalition has were given just about 45% of the votes. The mobilization in want of SP in Muslim-dominated seats and the higher fortify of Jats has additional progressed the potentialities for the alliance in West UP. The present assembly-wise figures of the Lok Sabha verify this.
Adjustments in seats converting votes
Within the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP alliance received 64 Lok Sabha seats in UP. The coalition’s vote proportion used to be over 51%. Compared, the vote of the coalition within the meeting has reduced by way of about 6%. On the similar time, the grand alliance of SP-BSP and RLD were given 39.23% votes. The BSP used to be additionally part of the alliance then. Within the alliance, SP had received 5 seats and BSP 10. The vote proportion of the SP alliance has reduced by way of best about 3% as in comparison to 2019, whilst the BSP is out of the alliance. The direct advantage of that is visual to the SP alliance when it comes to 2024. In West UP, the BJP-led Lok Sabha seats Kairana and Muzaffarnagar, the SP alliance has left the BJP in the back of when it comes to the choice of votes. On the similar time, in alliance with SP, BSP were given Lok Sabha seats, Saharanpur, Bijnor and Nagina also are noticed going to SP’s account. The BJP has an edge within the BSP’s Amroha Lok Sabha.
Housebreaking from Avadh to Purvanchal
In lieu of votes, the impact of arithmetic is visual from Awadh to Purvanchal. The SP alliance has progressed its place in lots of seats. As an example, it’s got an edge over the normal Badaun Lok Sabha of SP, whilst the BJP is these days maintaining this seat. In Bundelkhand too, the efficiency of the SP alliance has progressed fairly. He’s now main in Banda Lok Sabha seat. Within the Barabanki Lok Sabha, occupied by way of the BJP, the SP appears to be profitable on as of late’s effects. In Purvanchal’s Ballia, Basti and Bhadohi Lok Sabha, the SP alliance has additionally were given an edge.
Congress’s Rae Bareli could also be in peril, BSP in opposition to 0
It’s tricky for the BSP confined to at least one seat and the Congress, confined to 2 seats, to open an account in 2024 at the present efficiency. If we take a look at the assembly-wise votes, then the SP has overtaken UPA convenor Sonia Gandhi within the Rae Bareli Lok Sabha as neatly. Congress is dropping this seat at the vote proportion of this election. That is the one Lok Sabha seat with the Congress in UP. On the similar time, there may be 0 within the account of BSP, which received 10 seats with SP. SP has additionally long past forward in its Ambedkar Nagar, Lalganj, Ghosi, Ghazipur, Jaunpur and Ghazipur Lok Sabha seats it received in Purvanchal.
Even after victory, BJP must enhance the land
From 2014 to 2022, the BJP has maintained a profitable streak, however some issues also are visual in it. In 2014, the BJP, which captured 73 Lok Sabhas, had a lead in 337 assemblies. Repeating this within the 2017 meeting election, the BJP alliance received 325 seats. The BJP alliance, which received 64 seats in 2019, had a lead in 305 assemblies. For the primary time, the alliance created historical past by way of crossing the 51% vote mark in UP. This time additionally the BJP alliance has completed the most productive vote proportion within the meeting elections and received 273 seats. Out of the 255 seats that the BJP has received, 222 seats are such wherein it had won in 2019 as neatly. However, a 6% aid in vote proportion as in comparison to 2019 and a instantly battle has additionally created demanding situations. This time there used to be an immediate contest between BJP and SP alliance in 305 assemblies. On this, BJP received 206 seats. In 2017, the place the typical margin of victory used to be greater than 29 thousand, this time it has come down to twenty-eight thousand whilst the typical margin of victory of SP has higher from 1,40,803 to 17,820.
The problem of ‘Logo Modi’ might be in entrance of the opposition
Even after the modified figures, it’s going to now not be really easy to damage the BJP’s citadel in entrance of the opposition in 2024. At the moment the direct battle might be with Logo Modi, whose shine has now not pale until now. Within the remaining Lok Sabha elections, this pattern is obviously visual {that a} segment of the electorate of SP, RLD or BSP within the meeting is going in want of BJP within the identify of Modi within the Lok Sabha. It additionally contains core votes like Jats, Yadavs, Dalits. Whilst the BJP, buoyed by way of the successive victory, has began taking ahead the following election marketing campaign, the problem of saving the birthday celebration’s affect, core electorate and new alliance in entrance of SP leader Akhilesh Yadav. The query could also be whether or not Akhilesh Yadav will be capable of do such mobilization of anti-BJP votes in 2024 as neatly? The image of the consequences can be determined best after on the lookout for its solutions.
If the consequences stay like 22, then the BJP alliance has an edge right here.
Amroha, Meerut, Baghpat, Ghaziabad, Noida, Bulandshahr, Aligarh, Hathras, Mathura, Agra, Fatehpur Sikri, Firozabad, Etah, Amla, Bareilly, Pilibhit, Shahjahanpur, Kheri, Dhaurhara, Sitapur, Hardoi, Misrikh, Unnao, Mohanlalganj, Lucknow , Amethi, Sultanpur, Pratapgarh, Farrukhabad, Etawah, Kannauj, Kanpur, Akbarpur, Jalaun, Jhansi, Hamirpur, Fatehpur, Phulpur, Allahabad, Faizabad, Bahraich, Kaiserganj, Shravasti, Gonda, Dumariaganj, Sant Kabir Nagar, Maharajganj, Gorakhpur, Kushinagar, Deoria, Bansgaon, Salempur, Machhlishahr, Chandauli, Varanasi, Mirzapur, Robertsganj.
SP alliance has an edge in those 23 seats
Saharanpur, Kairana, Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor, Nagina, Moradabad, Rampur, Sambhal, Mainpuri, Badaun, Rae Bareli, Banda, Kaushambi, Barabanki, Ambedkar Nagar, Basti, Lalganj, Azamgarh, Ghosi, Ballia, Jaunpur, Ghazipur, Bhadohi.